全文|美国GAMCO创始人Mario：观察超额收益是合理的分析方式

>So our goal would be to buy companies that would generate that in a two year time period． If it was less than that， we wouldn‘t get capital gains， and secondly， it takes too long to develop an idea and to invest it for clients．

而等待时间至少两年太多的话，忘却波动稍稍了。最初时是是零年代，我们时是从越南撤退，西柏林还从未损毁，最初有卡特总统，肯尼迪总统，情势繁复，时是如任何时候一样，当然那时候也一样。

Longer than that， the world changes too rapidly． Again， that was the 70s． We‘re just getting out of Vietnam． We’re still in the Berlin Wall． We had President Carter coming in， Ronald Reagan， a whole mishmash of dynamics， no different than any time including now．

因此，我们所需一个我们称为裂解状况的东西，它很难变小股市的市值与其被低估的实际实用价值错综繁复的贫富差距。

And as a result of that， we said I need something that I can identify that would allow the spread to take place between where the stock is selling for in the public markets and what it was worth， that was what we call the catalyst．

裂解状况也许以多种范例存在。也许是一个金融家捡到这家的公司5%的股份，这个时候许多人都可能会开始关注这个的公司，探究为什么他们可能会捡它。也也许是的公司的一个部门合并了。

A catalyst could take many forms． It could be an industrialist buying 5% of a company． And all of a sudden we‘re saying why are they doing it？ It could be a spin off of a division．

也也许是一个世界性事件。比如在2011年我们去看2012年，或者在2012年我们去看2013年，我们可能会探究，如果税数万人波动了呢？

It could be a global thing， for example， in 2011， where we are now， looking into 12， and 12 looking at the 13， you can say okay， what happens if taxes change？

如果布什赢得选举，如果美国政府众议院，民主党将长期融资税数万人从15%大大提高到43.5%，如果我以外这家的企业，我可能会无论如何快速售出股市吗？这到底一个裂解状况？

What if Obama wins， the House， the Senate， the Democrats having taxes go to 43.5% on long term capital gains up from 15%， if I own the business， will I try to accelerate the sale of that？ Is that a catalyst？

What happens if in fact， spin-offs are endemic as they are now？ How does Irene Rosenfeld that Kraft spin off something that she send a sweet and savory business， package it up in Mondelez？ Does that work？

美国政府电视频道的公司（Cablevision）怎么就希望移去麦迪逊花园在线和AMC在线呢？它们都是来得好的资产，的公司并就让卖出。富俊生产商移去了它的酒类业务，成为那时候的Beam的公司，它还剩下家居硬件业务，这些业务实用价值多少？

How did Cablevision spin off Madison Square Garden and AMC network， which are a keeper which they don‘t want to sell？ Fortune Brands spinning off their booze business， now called Beam and there are home and hardware business and what are they worth？

所以裂解状况可以有各种范例。有些时候，我们就让约翰·马龙（美国政府东方日报大的公司、著名海外投资人），他如何去设计他的新产品？通常我们就让比尔·伊坎（美国政府曾为对冲投资公司经纪人）这样的人。有些时候我们就让卖钱的人，比如来进行联系海外投资的海外投资人。为什么他们可选择捡到这家的公司？捡了多少？他们的海外投资命中所数万人是多少？

So catalysts take many forms． Sometimes we follow John Malone， how does he engineer what he‘s doing？ Sometimes we follow individuals like Carl Icahn． Sometimes we follow moneymakers， like the guys in relationship investing． Why are they buying this company？ How many？ What’s their batting average？

这就是裂解状况。我们才可能会有裂解状况的状况是，我们的捡家并不是终身制的。可选择引入裂解状况是我们在七十年代零年代后半期动手出的一个并不实际的可选择。

So that‘s the catalyst and the reason for it is， we don’t have tenure for clients． It‘s a very practical dynamic that we introduced back in the late 70s．

哈佛大学的教授们视为，这是我们在怀特-格雷戈那时候种系统下的新颖，即使用权市场需求实用价值裂解状况论点。我们在选股之外，完备了如何能在这个每一次中所受益财务回报的论点。

And the professors at Columbia said that‘s the advancement we made in the Graham Dodd Marie and now Graham Dodd methodology， Private Market Value with a Catalyst to the that fundamental approach to not only stock selection， but also making a return on that process．

1999年，实用价值海外投资人严格来说被人们视为一种不太可能濒危了的动物。为什么？因为在那个时候，TMT金融业广为人知的是点击有多少，成交就有多高。

At a practical way， in 1999， value investors were not looked on as anything but an extinct species． Why？ Because at the time， TMT was how many hits do you get， how big is the valuation．

我们看到各种像Skype这样的的公司被列入标普股票价格，它们最初以前所未有的小规模增长速度，以五倍于市场需求成交的低水平来进行着额度。

and we were sitting there watching the Cisco of the world included in an SCoP index， where they were trading at five market caps that required a certain growth rate that we hadn‘t seen．

很但他却，我年中过1971-1973年，最初有一个说法叫“漂亮50股市Pop”，你捡入这些成长股，注定转让就可以。其中所包括雅芳、宝丽来、美林等。你那时候回顾一下，可能会发现这些的公司多么快就相继消亡了，因为它们的成交倍数太低了。

I fortunately， was also around in 1971， 72 or 73， when you had the nifty 50， buy a growth stock， hold it forever． And those were names like Avon and Polaroid and Xerox and so on， and you go back and look at you know how quickly they died off from it， because the multiples got too high．

在年中这样的辉煌时期时，在人们极不乐观时，是不渴望实用价值海外投资的。实用价值海外投资的另一个疑问是，不管统计学上来讲苹果这样的股市多低廉，

So what happens is when you have a period have a brilliance， you know， when people extremely optimistic， value investing is not highly sought after． The other problem we have in value investing is that we tend not to buy the Apples of the world， no matter how statistically cheap they are，

我们都极端于不去捡到这样的最初市值六千亿美金的的公司。在这样大的需求量级下，怎样的裂解状况才能起作用？我们能够将其使用权化，私募投资公司也不能像2007年那样去运作自发额度。

when you have a market cap of $600 billion dollars． You know， what kind of financial catalyst would work， we cannot take it private， Okay？ Private equity is not going to do that as much as they can do group deals as they did in 07．

所以，有一些股市类型就是不能使用这种实用价值研究者表现手法，虽然单独看额度，实用价值海外投资人或者叫自己其他爵位的实用价值海外投资人都可以说，苹果的公司是一个合适的实用价值海外投资第三人。

So， certain types of stocks don‘t lend themselves to this valuation， even though in quotes， value investors， you know， wearing many hats or however they want to， you know， come out and drag， they basically can look at it and say， okay， Apple fits in．

市盈数万人十倍，有巨大的贴现，新产品那时候有CPU，我很来得喜欢这个新产品。但是对我们来说这只股市还是一个同样。我们的研究者种系统严格来说最必需的大都是，在一个金融业中所动手研究者，但要关注融资化的所有各个方面。

It‘s 10 times earnings， it got huge cash flow， it’s got an embedded processor， and I love the product， but it is a challenge for us． So where we are actually most effective is doing research in an industry but looking at all sides of capitalizations，

因为那时候投机者的在结构上不太可能相反了，其余部分是因为文学家斯皮策的状况，那时候研究者师不能也不可能会侦测小盘股和微型股。

because the structure of Wall Street has changed in part accelerated by Spitzer， where the analyst can‘t follow and don’t follow micro cap and small cap stocks．

因此，我们增大了检视破纪录额度的程序中，去看金融业中所的所有股市，认识金融业的基本面，然后关注那些认同时是因如此了的和不被看淡的的公司。

So the alpha in quotes that we add to the process the value added is looking at all caps in industry， understanding industry fundamentals and then focusing on the ones that are certainly ignored and unloved．

我们仅仅转让了考布那时候无线通信的公司八年，这是一个并不最终的与此相关。当然很多此前它就被使用权化了。还有LIN广播的公司，我们转让了在一段时间一段等待时间，也许卖了不到30到40倍的额度，但认同卖了不少。严格来说长期额度至少了这个数字，多种线性都是如此。

We probably owned Cowles Communications for eight years． And that was an outstanding success． Obviously it was taken over years ago． Lin Broadcasting we probably made not 30 or 40 times your money but significant， actually more than that over a long period of time and has various incarnations．

我们开始转让大约在1970年，也许在2001约终止转让了。此后它上市了，麦考蜂窝无线通信的公司捡了一其余部分股权。

This started somewhere around 1970， probably ended for us somewhere around 2001． And it went public， McCaw bought pieces．

我们还有并不多的最终与此相关，但是就像棒球运动员杰西·布朗一样，你明白虽然我们不太可能很最终了，也许时是处于金融业的前1%了，我们还是可能会犯很多错误。

We‘ve had so many successes and like Ted Williams， however， you know as successful as we are， and we’re probably in a 1% of the category that we compete against． We‘ve had a lot of errors．

杰西的反击需求量远超了400。这理论上每五次他能击中所三次。我们和他一样也可能会不行。比如，我转让的数家的公司，一共转让了三十年，就此受益的价位和我原先无论如何去的从未区别。

Ted batted 400． It means he made out three out of five times， so we will make mistakes． For example， I owned --- probably for 30 years． And I got the same amount of money I paid for it 30 years later．

我们其实以外这家的公司的35%，但是我们从未倡议这家的公司远超目标线。我们本可以在任何时候动手到的。我们捡入数家的公司的大需求量股市时，我们的哲学是一贯的：来得喜欢这家的公司，你愿意捡它，为什么不以外整个的公司呢？

That and we owned about 35% of the company， we did not push them over the goal line． We could have done that at any time． So we own significant pieces of company consistent with a philosophy， like it and you are willing to buy it why not own the entire company？

你怎么去研究者来得进一步十年的的发展呢？要看人口比例在结构上的波动。人口比例在结构上时是在变老。他们所需人工的双脚部件，比如膝盖、髋关节、听觉特别设计、受试者特别设计，当你变老时所需来得多的牙齿诊疗，但中医师的数需求量从未小规模增长。

How do you analyze the world for the next 10 years？ Look at demographic changes， population is getting older， they need body parts， knees， hips， eyes， hearing aids， more denture per person as you get older， no growth in dentists．

我们到底这个时候就很难参与了呢，通过海外投资的公司、新新产品、新方法？或者是很最简单的东西，阻挠无甜味剂新产品，健康有机的食物？你可以想想全食的公司的小规模增长。有机其本质食品金融业起跑有多大？3500亿美金。小规模增长数万人是多少？金融业在关注哪些东西？

Is there a way to participate in that through distributors， through new products， to new technology？ Or simple thing， like gluten-free， health organic foods， watch the growth of Whole Foods． How big is that， organic， natural food industry？ $350 billion． What‘s the growth rate？ What’s it been looking at？

再行举一个最简单的例子。我整天自己煮饮料，因为每次动手所需动手一壶，一大半可能会剩下。科技进步后，我们那时候有了单杯饮料的技术，我们有了Keurig饮料机。

Another example is simple． I never made coffee because I‘d have to take a pot． I’d have to leave half over． Technology， a single serve coffee． We just had Keurig coffee．

放进去一个一次性，按一个按键，就可以吃了。饮料金融业是一个600亿美金的金融业，小规模增长并不极快。西柏林损毁后，一些新兴市场需求开始吃来得多的饮料，才有一些小规模增长。

You stick it in a pod you hit a button and it works． The coffee industry is $60 billion globally． It was very low growth． Berlin wall comes down， some of the emerging countries drink more， the world standards increase，

但是接二连三错综繁复，单杯饮料的饮料机市场需求小规模增长到了10亿美金，每年小规模增长25%。所以我们那时候可能会去看皮爷饮料（Peet‘s coffee），或者看莎莉的公司所独立出来的的公司，叫帝怡的的企业，那时候它也许以外这个生产商98%的权益。

but then all of a sudden single serve went from like a billion dollars． It‘s been growing at 25% a year． So we looked at things like Peet’s coffee． Why we looked at a spin-off from Sara Lee？ It‘s now called the D.E Master Blenders 1787， and that’s probably 98% right of the name．

所以，我们在看以上这些领域，我们可能会坐着来研究者，愿意它可能会有一个市场需求有所突破，我们在某一个价位很难捡下这只股市。

And so we‘re looking at sectors like that and then we sit down and start analyzing and we hope there’s a market break， we buy the stock at a price．

海外投资人们想问我去哪那时候找海外投资？我答案是，每天早上想想饮料杯示意图的东西，检视然后去探究什么能最终。妳大家！

Where would I tell investors to look？ Right under their coffee cup in the morning， and look and say， you know， what works？

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